08.28.06
The vote gap between Unionism and Nationalism
The days of Northern Ireland with a Unionist majority are drawing to a close. Elections for the past 30 years show one thing and one thing only - the end is nigh. The number of votes that Unionism has in excess of Nationalism has shrunk from 272,000 in 1973 to 55,000 in 2005. Click on the image for a full and readable version. The data used to compile this graph was obtained from Nicholas Whyte’s excellent Northern Ireland Elections site.
Nicholas said,
August 28, 2006 at 11:45 pm
I think it’s a bit early for celebration. In fact the difference reached a plateau in 1997 - nearly ten years ago - and has not shifted much since, whereas in the previous decade it had shifted considerably. I think that in 1996-97, SF and to a lesser extent the SDLP mobilised voters who either had not voted before, or had not voted Nationalist before. Now that well has run dry.
In any case the deciding event in real life will be a referendum rather than an election for political parties, and the 1998 referendum demonstrated clearly that there are lots of people in Unionist heartland seats who can’t bring themselves to vote in ordinary elections but will vote in a referendum if they feel it’s important enough. Combine that with the fact that a significant number of those who say they vote for Nationalist parties to opinion polsters also say that they prefer remainin gin the UK to a United Ireland, and I think we’ll be in the present situation for quite some time to come.
Robert Keogh said,
August 29, 2006 at 12:10 pm
I for one will not be celebrating until the border poll is held, the legislation passed and the 6 counties ceded to the Republic. So I agree that is premature to begin celebrating, it’s even premature to consider it.
The plateau of the last ten years is interesting in itself and I wonder how much of it is due to the changes to voter registration that resulted in an excess of 100,000 voters falling off the register as well as the disillusionment of UUP and SDLP voters that seem to just stay home.
The divergence between opinion polls and electoral results is another interesting facet of Northern Ireland. My feelings are that opinion polls in NI can not necessarily be trusted because one cannot know that the person on the other end is really a pollster and not a paramiltary researching your political allegiance. If you are a nationalist or catholic living in a mixed area you might be tempted to lie about your political viewpoint.
The most important demographic trend for any prospective border poll is inward migration from the EU and other countries. Presuming the immigrants have a vote in the border poll and under EU law I can’t see how they could be disbarred, could be the deciding vote between the two options. Loyalists are constantly burning out Polish catholics, the Sandy Row immigrant fiasco and unionism’s unwelcoming reserve when it comes to any but themselves makes it more likely that these migrants will vote nationalist than unionist, in my opinion. Additionally, immigrants will (if they vote at all) vote purely along the lines of their own best interests. What they are and how they will influence their choice is varied and complex.
Interesting times ahead. Great site Nicholas, thanks for all the hand work and please keep it up.